Random Walk

According to empirical evidence, all attempts to model future movement of share price or exchange rate is futile. The model which gives the least error is surprisingly the random walk model. What is it? It tells you that all form of forecasting is useless, as all movement in share price or exchange rate is random. However, it does tell one thing. Past price movement is reflected in today's price. Today's price records all the events which happened in the past. If there wasn't a recession, the share price today could be a lot higher.

This caught my attention. Whatever happened in the past will shape how things are now. This is not an unfamiliar concept in me. Aristotle came out with the theory of causality which states that event B happens due to event A. Without event A, event B would not happen.

In fact, this is one of the central teaching in Buddhism. Sankhara conditions Sankhata, argued the Buddha. Sankhara is conditioning activity, while Sankhata is conditioned activity. Sankhata will in turn transform into sankhara, and this process will go on and on. For example you get good results. This is because you answered well for your exam. The process of you answering well is sankhara, and the good results is sankhata. You feel happy as a result of getting good results. The happy feeling is sankhata, and good results is now sankhara. See how a conditioned activity can become a conditioning activity.

I would not dwell on Buddhism now or this post could span into a thesis long essay. The reason I touch on this topic of causality is to reflect on something which happened not long ago. I did something unknowingly and things do get out of control. The effect of my wrongdoing may still be lingering now. I do hope that things would be normal soon if it isn't. Nothing much I can do, just hope time would do its magic. In the meantime, will just distract myself from missing too much by doing work.

P.S. Hope the barley does the trick..

In a relationship

Being in a relationship is just like a dream. I have known a girl for years, but we hardly talk to each other. When it happens, it just happens like that.

Just now, I just hurt her pretty badly. It was due to my previous posting. Sometimes I do wish that I have a clock that can unwind the time and undo my mistake, but it is impossible. If I have that clock, the first thing I'll do is to undo my post. I can feel that she is hurt pretty badly.

I have apologised to her, but I know no matter how many times I apologise it would not heal her wound. I had no intention when writing that post, but it really affected her this much. My wish is to be able to affect her emotionally, for the better. What I did was the total opposite, and I'm sorry for that.

I can say a million cheer up to her, but I know it would not work. I hope that I'm able to comfort her in person, but I can't do so now. This is the second time I've hurt her, and every time it happens, I would feel sad as well. It pains me to see her weeping for me. I hope that her tears for me would only be tears of joy, not sorrow.

Please forgive me for my comment. I really didn't mean anything in it. You are the most important person to me now, the person I love. Please trust me on this. Once again, I'm sorry for what I've done. Please smile again for me ok? I love your smiling and happy face, that is one of the things that attracted me to you. Cheer up!

A little thought about the past..

Mr. B: Why are you in an open relationship?

Me: Because.. We don't want any strings attached? No commitment?

Mr. B: That day me and Miss D. discussed about it. We came to a conclusion that since you're a Buddhist, so you do not want any attachment. Is that true?

Me: What the hell.. Why must you always link me to Buddhism?

This is an actual conversation with a close friend of mine. Well, I do not know whether you can say he is a close friend of mine. I do not share personal stuff to him. At a second thought, I do not share my personal stuff to anyone except those that I can trust.

I used to trust my close friends in the past. The first person I trust was my schoolmate and still close friend of mine named Mr. Dino. I told him everything, including he is the first person to know about my relationship, etc. However as time passes by, he losses the credibility to be able to discuss serious issue. It seems like he doesn't have the mood to have serious discussion. We only talk about general and leisure stuff now, so there goes one of my 'close' friend.

Then come the second friend of mine. Let's call him Mr. T. We were friends at first, but soon we got closer after a few study sessions together. Then we were housemates, and we started to discuss some personal stuff. He would tell me about his relationship problems, and I would advise him. Come to think of it, my advice was mostly on continuing the relationship. I do not like to see couple breaks up, it kinda makes me sad. After a while.. He stopped being my 'close' friend as well. Let's just say I don't feel that he is trustworthy or serious enough to have a serious discussion.

Then come a third friend of mine, Mr. J. Mr. B. and Mr. T. always tease me and him since Mr. J. is a little 'abnormal' in nature. Being a nice and non-discriminating person, I decided to treat him like my any other friend. I initially treated him as my close friend, telling him my personal stuff. During that time, I was a little unbalanced emotionally so I would tell him lots of my thoughts and personal stuff. Most of it was about my failed relationship.

After a while, Mr. J. started to annoy me. For example one day when we were eating, he suddenly said: Still thinking about Miss F. ar? Don't think about her already, she got a boyfriend already. I was like what the hell. He just said something totally unrelated to the mood and topic of discussion. The best part is he'll keep repeating it. Another statement would be: 'Busy with Miss S. ar? bla bla bla.' Then one day an incident occurred which totally shut him out as being my friend. We were out having dinner with one of his friends. Soon we started to touch on the topic of relationship. After that he told his friend: 'He also had quite a bad experience in a relationship. I will tell you more about it later.' Since he said that statement, I would not tell him about my personal stuff anymore.

So now.. I do not have a friend where I can share personal stuff. Right now.. I would only have serious discussion with the one I think of before I go to sleep.. And the one who I would think of before I start my day. She is the one I trust most now..

End of Post

Lesson on Time Management

Halfway working through an essay, and I had been distracted by noises coming from the next room. Seems like my flatmate is playing some kind of game. If I remember correctly, I think he has an essay which is due tomorrow where he has not completed. Some people are just so laid back, and panic during the last minute. I do not mind if someone is doing things at the last minute, as long as it does not affect me.

It is better to do things last minute, as you wouldn't waste time. You would get the urge to do things faster when you realise that there isn't much time left.

This is an actual quote made by 2 person I know, and they really mean on what they say. Except there is a problem: they can't get the work done on time. So what is their solution? Asking help from people. I wouldn't mind teaching or guiding people, but when you realised that time isn't enough, you would feel the pressure. If you feel the pressure, it doesn't mean that you won't pass this pressure down to me. If one of you guys exist, I still can handle the pressure. But what if there are more than 1 of you that exists and asking for help at the same time? I am not a computer or some saint.

So here is my plea: please improve on your time management. This quote sounds so marvelous that it just seems so right; but trust me, it isn't right. I am burdened by work, and I do not want to be distracted by something else. They say that in a relationship the partner is the one affecting and distracting you the most. At least my partner is an understanding one, and I love her for that. She doesn't give me headache.

It is probable that the very very last minuters would not see this post, and I would not want you to see it either. This post is just to express my rant. I admit that I'm a last minute person as well, but you 2 are too extreme. I do hope that you would change for your own sake.

With metta,

Your concern friend

First post

Blogging is just so not my style. Last time I used to have a blog (which I forgot whatever the name or URL is), but it is just to be used as a money printing machine. Then I abandoned that blog after finding it not worth it to waste my time and effort for just a few penny.

I started this blog because I was so filled in thoughts. It was all kind of thoughts: how people behave, how the world is, politics, etc. Also, someone requested me to create a blog as a place to express myself (the URL of this blog is given by that person.. ).

That is all for now.. Blogging resumes after work is done.